+Hold’em has become a no fold’em game
I have been noticing a trend in poker lately that was actually pointed out to me by Mike Matusow. Now to be fair Mike enjoys perhaps a little too much talking about what a donkey everyone who plays poker is. So when Mike is babbling on and on about how so and so is so bad and such and such is a moron I often tune it out. But let’s admit it, Mike is an amazing poker player. There is no denying his skill. So thrown into the drone there are often gems if you just keep your ears and mind open enough to what he is saying.
So I was sitting next to him for most of day 3 of the Bellagio Five Diamond. On this particular day Mike was pontificating about how all these new players who have come into the game are so bad and how none of them are going to stick around and all that. You know, the way Mike always does. But in there he pointed out that he hates that hold’em has become a no fold’em game. That anymore when a player gets a chip in the pot they are just never going to fold. To be fair, this is a ridiculous exaggeration. First, there are plenty of amazing new players in the game and they are not all morons and donkeys. Many of them are going to stick around for a long time to come and of those that are sticking around most are capable of folding. That is just Mike. Things are all or nothing with him and that is what I love about him because I want to be really clear here that I think Mike is a great guy and I adore him.
But he did really get the one thing right. There is a trend toward not folding in hold’em. I guess anymore people are unwilling to ever chance folding the best hand so, in Mike’s opinion and I have to agree with him on this one, they really call way too often in spots that just can’t be right. The prime example of this is these calls I see with hands in the 44 or 55 range. I will see someone move in for something like 10 big blinds and players will snap call the move in with 44 and I mean snap call when it might be for 1/3 or more of their chips. I see this when they open for a raise early with a hand like 44 and get raised all-in for at least the pot if not more and they snap call with the 44 for a significant part of their stack. Mike is completely right here. That just has to be a bad call and I am seeing this call more and more and more lately.
Here is the problem with the call: in Hold’em in general you really want to reduce your variance as much as possible, particularly in tournaments. Calling in these spots with small pairs has to increase your variance by a lot and here is the reason why: What is the person moving with? The problem with the hand is that even a complete bluff tends to be even money against you. Even if the person has something as terrible at J8 or 67 or Q9 they are still even money. So your best case scenario is racing. And the worst case is 55, 66, 77 and on up. Against all those hands you are 4.5 to 1. So the issue is that unless you are lucky enough to be looking at 22, 33 or A2 or something like that then you are at best even money and at worst 18%. That is a pretty bad prop to take. Particularly if you can use those chips you are about to call off to push people around. Because of the range of hands you are likely to be against the call has to be high variance by definition. If I am going to get my chips in with a hand like 44, I don’t know about you, but I like to be the one pushing and make the other guy make the decision. I see no reason when a dude open shoves for 10 BB’s to try my best to double the dude up in a spot where I have to be on average much worse than even money. I am just gambling even if I see my dream and dude was bluffing with 89. I would rather just fold and cost myself nothing than double the dude up risking a significant portion of my stack in a spot where I am at best in a race. Mike is totally right.
I truly believe the issue is that people are too afraid that they are being pushed around so they are desperate to make sure that they never, ever fold the best hand. But, seriously, you cannot be a winning poker player if you never fold the best hand. You just can’t. Phil Hellmuth knows this. He is notorious for folding the best hand and look at him he has 11 bracelets so he has to be doing something really, really right being so race avoidant. He knows he folds the best hand a lot but that is okay with him because he feels he can get all those chips at a much lower risk later on. We should all take a lesson from Phil on that one. Fold the baby pairs when you are looking at such a big move in. I would rather have a hand like AQ than 55 because with AQ I can actually be dominating my opponent.
Phil and Mike understand this. So should you.