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Psychology Today: How to Make Winning Decisions: Luck and Uncertainty (7-Part Series)

This post is Part 1 in a 7-part series.

Before Donald Trump became a US President, I used to watch his reality show Celebrity Apprentice, where stars competed in tasks to raise money for charity. I was most impressed by the 2009 runner-up, Annie Duke, PhD, who actually raised 209% more in the final challenge than winner Joan Rivers did and was the first contestant to ever reach the finals with a perfect record of wins as Project Manager.

Duke’s poker background was a key reason for her success in making winning decisions. Before Celebrity Apprentice, Duke had already pocketed more than $4 million in tournament wins and remains the only woman to have ever won both the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. But poker mastery wasn’t Duke’s only secret weapon.

Before her poker career, Duke had completed all but the dissertation (“ABD”) of her cognitive science PhD via a prestigious National Science Foundation Fellowship at an Ivy League college. She had quit her studies to dominate poker tables, but later she quit poker to return to the University of Pennsylvania, finish her PhD, consult for companies, and write a slew of books. Appropriately, Duke’s books tackle making better decisions. Her latest is Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away.

After devouring Duke’s books, I got the chance to pick the brain of this champion decision-maker. Dr. Annie Duke’s insights follow, and her tips can help us all get better at making decisions (including judging when to quit) in this uncertainty-filled world.

Continue to Part 1: How to Make Winning Decisions: Luck and Uncertainty

Continue to Part 2: Gaming Your Way to Winning Decisions

Continue to Part 3: Reducing Uncertainty to Make Winning Decisions

Continue to Part 4: When You Consider Quitting, You Should

Continue to Part 5: You Need Both Grit and Quit

Continue to Part 6: Decision-Helping Strategies From a Poker Champion

Continue to Part 7: Teaching Youth to Make Better Decisions