What do the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting market volatility have to teach us about risk, uncertainty, and investment decision making? Annie Duke and Morgan Housel explored this question in depth in a conversation at the 73rd CFA Institute Annual Virtual Conference last month that yielded a three-step rubric to help investors navigate the tumult.
EXCERPT: Humans are very bad at being wrong, which makes sense: it feels great to be right. So we generally default to assuming we know what we’re talking about. But years of playing professional poker taught Annie Duke that, in a game of cards, assuming you’re right is a sure path to
Excerpt: After winning more than $4 million in tournament poker, Annie Duke has plenty of experience navigating risk—even the kind of risk that’s gripping the world today. A former winner of the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship, Duke now speaks widely
After winning more than $4 million in tournament poker, Annie Duke has plenty of experience navigating risk—even the kind of risk that’s gripping the world today. A former winner of the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship, Duke now speaks widely and
Annie Duke was featured in the Texas CEO Magazine. Read the full feature here.
Annie Duke: American poker player and author of the book, Thinking In Bets Shane Parrish: Host of The Knowledge Project If you have two hours, above-average patience, and don’t mind a lot of pauses for notetaking, the conversation between Annie Duke and Shane Parrish is compelling for three reasons: You will realize that you
EXCERPT: Do a pre-mortem We are subject to a resulting bias, which causes us to rationalise the outcome with our decision. Some of us can fall into the trap of hindsight bias, which states that after an outcome is known, we see the outcome as having been inevitable all along.
After another week of pandemic and economic whiplash — these books can help you get comfortable with unpredictability
Throughout much of the world, politicians have been slow to react to COVID-19, often starting with half measures, and typically getting to the drastic measures we really need too late, after the disease has spread to hundreds or thousands of people. Far too many leaders have taken a gradualist approach,
Excerpt: For that reason, I believe it’s good to do what world poker champion Annie Duke calls a “premortem”: a detailed plan for what a failure would look like. Rather than mapping out a success, premortems map out a failure. Doing this, Duke posits, helps you develop better strategies for