Summary.
If you are looking for fool-proof strategy for obtaining certainty, we have bad news for you—the world is complicated and markets are difficult to predict. But, if you are looking for ideas to manage the uncertain future, we have good news. There are tools for thinking through uncertainty and using it to plan and make decisions. These tools are useful in everyday life and every economic climate, regardless of whether the world is at war or at peace; whether the economy is growing or contracting; and whether we are in a bull or a bear market. Here, we share five tools for thriving in an uncertain world: expected value, the wisdom of the crowd, confidence calibration, hedging, and communicating uncertainty with confidence.close